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The bear market hit harder and faster in a magnitude unseen in recorded history. No nation was prepared or spared. COVID-19 was a more efficient spreader and killer than our historically-reliable sources believed. Data so far has proven to be incomplete, and researchers are still struggling to...
In my March 18 article of this year , I wrote that “we’re not out of the woods yet but get ready.” My buy signal on the market that was in place for just under 11 years finally flashed a sell signal on Feb. 26, 2019. During those 11 years, earnings increased for the S...
Last year, I wrote "NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms," in which I discussed the release of the National Federation of Independent Business small business survey. While the NFIB was ebullient in their analysis, we warned the data suggested a "recession" was lurking in the shadows. To wit: ...
It is a sign of how volatile the last few weeks have been, that a week like the last one, where index levels move only 2-3% a day, high by historic standards, felt stable. As in prior weeks, I will start this one by looking at how the market action last week played out across asset classes, an...
The US economy is in uncharted territory. The BCI signaled a recession warning on 4/2/2020. Regardless of the signal, we need to know how the COVID-19 pandemic has, or has not, influenced the calculations. Table 1 lists the economic data that the BCI uses and combines the components for the in...
"The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries." – Winston Churchill Here's a scenario for you: We are likely (clearly) in a consumer-led recession. Jobless claims have been off the charts. Un...
By Robert Hughes The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business plunged a record 8.1 points to 96.4 in March versus 104.5 in February (see top chart). The latest result ends a run of 39 consecutive months above 100. The index is now at its lowest lev...
After an initial dizzying slump, the markets have staged a bit of a comeback from deeply oversold conditions and on the back of decisive policy action. But views are sharply divided on what happens next. On the one hand, there are those that point out to terrifying economic figures on growth...
In my recent research note on COVID-19 I noted two potential scenarios: Short and painful . Basically, 6 months of lockdown with a modestly fast recovery (~15 months). Short-ish and painful. Basically, 12-18 months of lockdown with devastating economic pain and a much slower recov...
We consider an 'all or nothing day' to be a day where the net daily breadth reading (daily advancing stocks minus declining stocks) for the S&P 500 is above +400 or below -400. While these types of days were practically non-existent in the 1990s, beginning in the early 2000s, their frequen...
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Actively managed funds designed to provide investors and advisors with differentiated tools for accessing income-generating investments. Infrastructure Capital Advisors (“InfraCap”), a leading provider of investment management solutions designed to meet the needs of in...
Actively managed fund is designed to provide investors and advisors with a value-focused, differentiated tool for accessing income-generating small cap equity exposure Infrastructure Capital Advisors (“InfraCap”), a leading provider of investment management solutions d...