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2022 started with consensus around elevated inflation, tight labor markets and a rapid withdrawal of central bank accommodation, but CME Group economists highlight potential surprises. After a volatile January for equities, bonds and commodities, Blu Putnam and Erik Norland discuss wh...
Consumer price inflation continued to run hot in January. CPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.6% during the month, boosting y-o-y inflation to a 40-year high 7.5%. No one believes the FOMC has the stomach to pull a Volcker. Larry Summers today called for the Fed to immediately ho...
For the week just past, precious metals caught a bid as Russia-Ukraine tensions continued to escalate. Volatility was up as the market fell hard Thursday and Friday. Energy has continued its strong performance from last year, gaining 2.2% last week and 25.3% YTD. Of the ten bigges...
The focus shifts in the week ahead away from central banks directly and toward the macro data at the start of the year. The US real sector data in the week ahead includes January retail sales and industrial production. Several other major countries report January inflation figures...
Four macroeconomic indicators rang the alarm before every recession since 1950. Sustained bear markets in equities unfolded in recessions only. The macro indicators are not flashing warning signals yet. The S&P 500 remains on target for 5000-5200. For further details...
The uncertainty associated with future plans of the Federal Reserve has been joined by the uncertainty connected with the Russian presence on the Ukrainian border. The resultant consequence has been the increased volatility of the stock market and the concern over the future direction...
As last year drew to a close, we were writing quite a bit about the narrowness of the year-end stock market rally – noting, for example, that some 40 percent of companies on the broad-based Nasdaq exchange were down by 50 percent or more from their 52-week highs. The Russell 20...
The consumer price index for January rose 7.5% compared with a year ago and was slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 7.2%. Meanwhile, real earnings for workers increased just 0.1% on the month, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 61.7 in January vs. 67...
Inflation and interest rates have been at the forefront of investors’ minds so far this year and that’s unlikely to change for some time yet. Earnings season provided a welcome and timely distraction and enabled markets to find some stability but as we saw towards the en...
Bull Market is now 139 months long. Bull Market has advanced 481%. Interest rates have never been lower at 1.62%. Inflation and higher interest rates threaten stock prices. For further details see: Market Tops Market Bottoms Status Report 2022