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Stocks tanked as bond yields rose above the 2% level on the US Ten-Year note. The stock market and related investment areas influence the economy, more than the economy influences the markets. The S&P 500 sold off aggressively, closing below the critical 200-day moving average...
The latest leading economic data indicate that the US expansion is intact. There are signs that the pace of economic activity will slow markedly during the first half of this year. Money-supply trends warn that a boom-to-bust transition could begin as soon as the first half of thi...
The stimulus payments led to a short-term boost in PCE, corresponding with increased economic growth. However, stimulus-fueled activity has a dark side. Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the sugar rush of liquidity continues to fade from the system. When it comes to the s...
US large cap stocks sell off as geopolitical jitters cascade markets. Defense equities trend up and broad market put-buying intensifies. IPOs and SPACs withdrawn as capital markets show signs of drying up. For further details see: Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm: Invasion ...
So far, the Dow is off 5.6% from the highs (transports are -12.0%), the S&P 500 is -7.8%. Ex-energy and financials, the S&P 500 is near -10%. The Nasdaq is -14%, and the economically sensitive Russell 2000 is -16.9%–the same level it was at the start of 2021. At the...
Nibbling around the edges, sure. But wholesale selling in panic or buying in hope? Patience, Master Luke, Patience. Frenetic trading in response to terrifying headlines or just-passed alarming index declines is seldom rewarding. About those scary headlines, remember the editor...
We now have evidence that the shift toward sustainability is leading to a repricing of assets across the board - and believe it has a lot more room to run. US inflation hit new 40-year highs, sending bond yields soaring amid market expectations of more rate hikes. We see the market...
There is a consensus building that the Fed will be forced to tighten so rapidly that it results in a recession and bear market. I see neither on the horizon, as the Fed is likely to be far more gradual than the market is currently anticipating. The rate of inflation should decline...
Media fright fest... This week, they turned up the volume on old news, sawing sawdust again. Inflation... Should it really be making us and the market crazy? War in Eastern Europe... What’s the impact on iPhone demand? For further details see: Inflation And War Ta...
2022 started with consensus around elevated inflation, tight labor markets and a rapid withdrawal of central bank accommodation, but CME Group economists highlight potential surprises. After a volatile January for equities, bonds and commodities, Blu Putnam and Erik Norland discuss wh...