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Chinese consumer, producer price increases slow. Key takeaways from the Fed’s January meeting minutes. Markets react to Russia-Ukraine tensions. For further details see: Inflation Cools In China. What Could This Mean For Other Countries?
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The Omicron tsunami has receded as quickly as it rose, making one less source of worry, at least for now. B...
There’s been no shortage of volatility in the markets so far this year and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. The focus has shifted slightly in recent weeks from monetary policy to geopolitics as Russian troops have built up on the Ukrainian bord...
Markets remain under pressure, as the Russia-Ukraine standoff continues. The futures market is now predicting just a 25-basis point hike by the Fed in March. While there are factors that may lead some to believe we are at the end of very short economic and market cycle, this still...
The biggest market threat is a policy misstep! Odds of a hot war in Ukraine have diminished in past 48 hours. Now we wait for troop withdrawal. The time to buy insurance is before your house is on fire! Managers are fleeing Tech and Bonds while gaining exposure to Banks and En...
Why inflation may be here to stay for the long term. The Fed may have to be more proactive if it wants to get ahead of inflation. Why wage growth is the big inflation driver and the reason inflation will be around for a while. For further details see: How Far Will The Fe...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance increased by 23,000 for the week ending February 12, coming in at 248,000. The four-week average fell in the latest week – the second decrease in a row and the largest decline since December 11, 2021 – coming in at ...
Consumer spending surged in January. A decade-low for consumer sentiment is not consistent with spending levels. I expect the yield curve to steepen as the year progresses. There are no signs of recession on the horizon. For further details see: Consumers Say No Rece...
Retail sales and food services spending rose 3.8% in January following a 2.5% drop in December. The strong gain suggests first quarter gross domestic product may be off to a good start. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers and gasoline retailers, also jumped 3.8%...
Whether we want to admit it or not, we have a considerable inflation problem. Prices are skyrocketing all around us, and high inflation is already impacting retail sales, consumer sentiment, and confidence. Moreover, corporate margins, profits, and EPS will likely soften as we mov...