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The bond market has been expecting a rate hike for some time and market interest rates have moved higher over the last year and a half partially in anticipation. A reason for the Federal Reserve to increase short term interest rates is to slow a potentially overheating economy. Yi...
10+ years later, my view on a monetary collapse hasn't changed. I will push back on many fallacies you are probably certain about. The US Dollar will collapse! - (and other fallacies debunked). The US Dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power! Inflation is scary! (Not really...
The overall economic picture still points to expansion. The Fed has clearly changed its focus to inflation-fighting. The overall tone remains bearish. For further details see: Overall Bearish Tone Continues (Technically Speaking For The Week Of 2/14-2/18)
Heightened inflation and the easing of the pandemic restrictions have turned the monetary cycle. China may have removed its supportive efforts too early and has again returned the punchbowl. Emerging markets more broadly are faring better than one might have expected given the ris...
The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Bears are in control of the m...
Bubbles are sustained only by ever increasing amounts of Credit. Bubbles are mechanisms of wealth redistribution and destruction. My thesis holds that 2022 is a pivotal year for a historic multi-decade Bubble period. For further details see: Weekly Commentary: Made The D...
On Tuesday this week, a story broke early in the day about a possible withdrawal of Russian troops from the border of Ukraine. The next day, though, reports broke out about active hostilities in eastern Ukraine regions, which are generally pro-Russian, with the usual grim pictures of ...
Looking back at 20-plus years of Fed policy, reveals consistent cycles of building and then bursting bubbles - always months behind the curve. This time too. The Fed's radical COVID response looks much like their policy following the tech bubble and the great financial crisis (G...
Speculation on the interest rate picture is at a fever pitch now, but it pales to the Russia/Ukraine hysteria. This headline driven market presents a very difficult investment scene. Despite all of the concerns, coprorate earnings will dictate the direction of the stock market. ...
Chinese consumer, producer price increases slow. Key takeaways from the Fed’s January meeting minutes. Markets react to Russia-Ukraine tensions. For further details see: Inflation Cools In China. What Could This Mean For Other Countries?