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Historically, crisis events like the Ukraine/Russia development tend to have a short-term impact on the equity market and present more of a buying opportunity for investors. The one potentially problematic issue facing the market is the price of oil. It is approaching $100 per barrel,...
Despite NATO interventions, tensions between Russia and Ukraine are growing by the day. A Russian attack seems more and more possible. NATO's only weapons are sanctions; the issue is that these are a double-edged sword. There will be impacts on the market, mainly related to th...
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated over the weekend. However, this conflict may not be what's upsetting the stock market. It may be the Fed's change in stance that's really the problem. For further details see: The Russia-Ukraine Crisis May Not Be What Plagues The...
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will not derail the economic expansion or bull market. Investors will soon refocus on Fed policy and inflation. I see 5-6 rate hikes of 25 basis points in 2022 and inflation falling to better than half of 7.5%. Corporate earnings estimates for the S...
Investors are on edge, as global stock markets have tumbled - led by the popping of the tech bubble - since the start of the year. With the market continuing to drop, we may ask whether or not it is a good time to buy right now. In widespread market drops, there are investment opp...
The equities rebound towards the end of January, from the initial swoon, was reversed last week, and at this point, a new low is all but certain. There are a number of things troubling equities. Geopolitics are a fickle catalyst for anything, but it has certainly added to the misery i...
I believe most US equities have topped out for this phase. "What phase we have entered?" is the question investors are asking. I believe we have entered a downward slope with periodic upward trading opportunities. (57% of NYSE stocks and 61% of NASDAQ stocks fell last week.) Hardest h...
Current inflation is supply-led rather than demand-led. Time and market forces will ease this current bout of high inflation. Asia and Europe could use a more accommodative policy than the U.S. For further details see: The Supply-Led Inflation Challenge
Non-U.S. markets, including EM, DM, and Asia, are outperforming the U.S. markets after underperforming last year. After slightly underperforming growth last year, value is where the money is flowing. With the economy still in growth mode, cyclical stocks should do better than defe...
The bond market has been expecting a rate hike for some time and market interest rates have moved higher over the last year and a half partially in anticipation. A reason for the Federal Reserve to increase short term interest rates is to slow a potentially overheating economy. Yi...