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The tension between Russia and Ukraine is a widely-watched event. Investors are worried an escalation of tensions would be a negative economic shock. You should not try and guess the outcome of political events, but rather position for the underlying cyclical trends. A shock d...
Tensions are increasing between Russia and Ukraine as the pullback deepens for stocks. Ultimately stock prices are a function of earnings and valuations (P/E multiples). If similar conflicts in the past are any guide, the effects on the profits of US companies is likely to be smal...
The S&P 500 and stocks are approaching another inflection point. Geopolitical tensions are high, inflation is raging, and the FOMC is coming. The S&P 500 could break below critical support soon, which will likely result in another stock market drop. For further detai...
Forecasting macro activity and managing expectations have become substantially more difficult. As the West imposes sanctions on Russia, the potential for a severe supply shock lurks – particularly for oil and natural gas. Macroeconomic risk will rise, perhaps leading to a n...
The SPY is on the verge of a massively bearish break down. I think we're in the final stages of a head-and-shoulders pattern that will resolve much lower. I detail what I'm looking for in terms of a tradable bottom. For further details see: Get Out Of This Market While Y...
Each time a more substantial market correction occurred, Central Banks acted to provide the “neutral stimulus.”. Liquidity is the lifeline of markets, and the Fed, directly and indirectly, manages its flow via QE and zero rates. While financial underpinnings seem sta...
Russia supplies natural gas to Europe, and in the event of US sanctions, this could impact Europe. But there are so many LNG ships in the Atlantic right now that lease rates have collapsed, so Russian threats to cut off Europe’s gas may not be much of a threat. The other big th...
The central bank seems to be hoping for a repeat of the market we saw in 2003-2004, where stocks fell aggressively before the first interest rate increase of the cycle but were able to hold their own thereafter. The end game to this talk now and hope later strategy is to create the co...
In recent months growth stocks have been severely punished as a result of declining post-pandemic growth and upcoming interest rate hikes. While various growth stocks are now trading at a much more reasonable valuation, many stocks may be due for a larger correction. In the bear c...
Historically, crisis events like the Ukraine/Russia development tend to have a short-term impact on the equity market and present more of a buying opportunity for investors. The one potentially problematic issue facing the market is the price of oil. It is approaching $100 per barrel,...