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A huge upside surprise in today’s jobs report indicates a strong U.S. economy. Consumers continue to spend, despite soaring food and energy prices. Sentiment readings reflect extreme fear, which is a contrarian indicator. Markets are reflecting a lot of bad news, yet th...
Good news: Payrolls growth increased. Bad news: Real income growth continues to decline. The Fed is trapped between inflation and declining real income. Recession risk continues to rise as the yield curve collapses. For further details see: The Tightest Box In Federa...
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 678,000 jobs in February, extending a run of 10 consecutive months and 13 of the last 14 months with gains above 400,000. Private payrolls posted a 654,000 gain in February, the ninth in a row and 12th in the last 14 months above 400,000. Average hourly...
Worldwide manufacturing growth picked up in February after being subdued to a 1.5-year low in January due to the Omicron wave. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from a 15-month low of 53.2 in January to 53.6 in February in a sign that the global economy continued to show enco...
S&P 500's fortunes are tied to leading tech stocks which are heavily overvalued. There are signs of sector diversification but, overall, there are also strong signs of ratio cool-offs towards price normalization. There's very little to suggest any connection with the broader e...
While many media experts suggest that investors should not be concerned about rate hikes, BofA makes a very valid point regarding valuations. Jerome Powell clearly understands that a decade of monetary infusions and low rates created an asset bubble larger than any other in history. ...
News and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. ...
“It never pays to bet on the end of the world because even if you’re right you can’t collect!”. While people are concerned with geopolitical headwinds, we continue to look under the surface to see what’s actually happening. The biggest risk in th...
Bullish: 30.4%, up 7.0 percentage points. Neutral: 28.2%, up 5.2 percentage points. Bearish: 41.4%, down 12.2 percentage points. For further details see: AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Nears 2022 High, But Still Below Average
US economy shrugged off the effects of Omicron and should be relatively resilient to the headwinds caused by Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine by virtue of being an energy producer and having limited direct economic linkages. Higher interest rates are coming with 2% still...