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The Household Survey Employment rises 548,000, Establishment Survey rises 678,000 with unemployment lower at 3.8%. Employment trended right through the 1987 market panic as if nothing occurred and investors aware of this took advantage of the discount. The current employment trend...
February jobs rose a surprisingly strong 678,000, unemployment down. Wages, meanwhile, are accelerating. So far so good. But here’s where the effects of the past few years’ monetary madness come in. The grim reality is that lots of people are finding jobs and getting...
I don't pretend to know how the Russia/Ukraine war will play out, but I can shed some light on how it has impacted the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Limiting Russia's ability to use the SWIFT payment system is a big factor reducing liquidity overseas. Whenever the market gets very ...
Beijing sees the Ukraine crisis as its opportunity to gain influence over financial markets. This week, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission decided to disconnect seven Russian banks from the Belgium-based SWIFT. If Russian banks are ultimate...
Unpacking the international sanctions on Russia. How cyberattacks could damage economic growth rates. MSCI, FTSE, STOXX remove Russian equities from indices. For further details see: Could Russia's Attack On Ukraine Turn Into A Macroeconomic Event?
As predicted, high energy costs keep the inflation "boogeyman" on the scene for a while. Global Manufacturing and Services data remains on track as COVID moves to the background. This new era backdrop has been volatile but it is also presenting unique opportunity. If there is ...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Higher interest rates and a squeeze in spreads are pressing on the long range forecast, while commodity price s...
It’s been another week of significant volatility in financial markets, one in which European indices edged closer to bear market territory, oil prices hit a 10-year high around $120, and safe-haven gold came close to $2,000. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the severe sancti...
The jobs report was strong, but shows consumers are losing purchasing power. Wage growth has been unable to keep pace with inflation rates. The bond market appears to be pricing the rising risk of a recession. For further details see: Jobs Report Reveals A Nightmare Scen...
A huge upside surprise in today’s jobs report indicates a strong U.S. economy. Consumers continue to spend, despite soaring food and energy prices. Sentiment readings reflect extreme fear, which is a contrarian indicator. Markets are reflecting a lot of bad news, yet th...