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The market action has been very very slow. That's probably because it's in transition to the reality that the Fed stopped buying - only last week. What launched this market has ended and now the news has changed. For further details see: Fake-Out Stock Market In Transiti...
Friday’s payroll report reflects a very strong U.S. economy. Wage growth and surplus savings are buttressing our economy from the spike in commodity prices. Risks will grow depending on how long the conflict-driven price increases last. The decline in earnings estimates...
Almost every commodity rose in prices last week, as did the dollar. Those two factors - rising dollar and rising commodity prices - mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week. There was considerable volatility in stocks last week,...
G5 central bank asset purchases are signaling that global PMIs are likely headed lower in the coming quarters. Inflation has completely destroyed real income growth. Speculative leverage has significantly reduced over the past couple of months. For further details see: G...
Emerging Markets are outperforming the rest of the world, due in large part to windfall profits in the commodities-exporting countries of South America and the Middle East. If you want to follow the money, this is a good place to start. Money has been flowing out of tech, consumer dis...
The market bottomed at the time of the invasion of Ukraine. Most remained bearish at the recent low due to the news cycle and did not expect a rally. I am looking for the market to set up another rally. For further details see: Sentiment Speaks: Setting Up For A Rally
Investor sentiment plummets along with European equities. A flight to safety and out of junk bonds. Yet stock market allocations remain elevated. For further details see: Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm: Geopolitical Risks Spilling Over
Over the last two centuries, at least 23 ships are recorded as having been sunk by icebergs, while many more have sustained damage. Over the years, while ships have grown larger, so have icebergs. The largest iceberg in the world, at about 80 times the size of Manhattan, broke off the...
Between Day Two and Day Nine, the situation has deteriorated beyond what anyone thought likely. One week into their invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces are ramping up assaults on civilian areas, making strategic advances in the coastal south and beginning to lay siege to major cities....
The Household Survey Employment rises 548,000, Establishment Survey rises 678,000 with unemployment lower at 3.8%. Employment trended right through the 1987 market panic as if nothing occurred and investors aware of this took advantage of the discount. The current employment trend...