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Amid the widespread stock-market wreckage arising from the Russian-Ukraine conflict in February, there was one notable survivor: US small caps actually posted gains for the month, eclipsing the broad US market and most markets elsewhere. Small-cap companies typically derive more of th...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the global economy, in particular by fueling further spikes in energy and commodity prices. The new inflationary catalysts will have differing effects on monetary policy moves because regional economies are starting from different places...
This potential problem compounds if or when consumer sales soften simultaneously. While overall topline sales have stayed robust, there are incremental warning signs as to whether this will or even can continue much longer. the total revolving credit (seasonally-adjusted) was thou...
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into its second week, the economic fallout is gradually coming into focus. In our view, it is highly likely that economic growth will slow in the US and globally, but less so in the U.S. We expect market volatility to remain elevated for an...
Sentiment on behalf of small businesses fell for the second month in a row in February. Employment indices in this month’s report are some of those that remain the most elevated relative to their historical ranges. Additionally this month, fewer respondents reported that it...
Oil prices are pushing toward demand destruction territory. Bearish risks are rising. We alert conservative income investors to the growing risks. For further details see: A Word Of Caution For Conservative Midstream Investors
The sanctions against Russia, as understandable as they may be, are likely to backfire in the eurozone due to their large trade relationship with the Russian Federation. It would be a while before Europe can get alternative natural gas supplies, so this price spike can go higher. ...
In President Biden’s first State of the Union speech, there was no change in the national energy policy in the light of $115 oil and soaring inflation, with prospects of much higher prices due to the cutoff of Russian supply. With the latest U.S. GDP estimate now at zero and he...
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. Today's headline number of -89.69B was worse than t...
We see developed market (DM) government bonds as ineffective portfolio diversifiers and favor inflation-linked bonds in this inflationary environment. Energy prices surged on further supply concerns. Equities slid, with Europe harder hit than the U.S. Bond yields fell on reduced rate ...