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We see developed market (DM) government bonds as ineffective portfolio diversifiers and favor inflation-linked bonds in this inflationary environment. Energy prices surged on further supply concerns. Equities slid, with Europe harder hit than the U.S. Bond yields fell on reduced rate ...
The economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 in the United States is good, though inflation will remain high and storm clouds grow in later years. Economic growth will be pushed up by past stimulus, both fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. Inflation will remain high this year and nex...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created significant uncertainty for the cycle outlook. The global economy was on track for strongly above-trend growth in 2022. The war in Ukraine will likely have a negative impact on growth and cause higher inflation this year, with Europe tak...
The spread between the 2- and 10-year Treasury yields has collapsed 40 basis points over the past month. The flattening of the curve has many worried a recession is on the horizon. This flattening is more a function of a flight to safety than a fear of economic contraction. I ...
We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year. Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages. ...
At the beginning of this year, few Wall Street analysts expected substantially weaker economic growth in 2022. Already, we see a contraction in manufacturing activity as demand slows. The most significant risk to earnings, and the eventual earning reversion, is the reversal of liq...
The pandemic is just one long-term consideration for economies as the world adjusts to several new phases. Short-term risks are elevated, but a focus on interactions between major long-term risks could prove critical for market participants. Demographic patterns change slowly, but...
Parabolic prices are usually the prelude to significant price declines. The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line may have delivered a bullish technical divergence. Barring extraordinary circumstances, the Fed will stick to the slow and steady plan for raising rates u...
In terms of stock prices, we are in a decline. Until it is finished, we won’t know if the decline is just a trading event, a correction, or a bear market. Using the most popular market indices, the picture is muddled, with the NASDAQ Composite well into the correction phase, dr...
The market action has been very very slow. That's probably because it's in transition to the reality that the Fed stopped buying - only last week. What launched this market has ended and now the news has changed. For further details see: Fake-Out Stock Market In Transiti...