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We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view. The global economy, led by the U.S., was growing rapidly as it reopened from the coronavirus pandemic. Yea...
It is easy to fall down the rabbit hole of doom and gloom when market prices are falling. A more balanced assessment of the headwinds and tailwinds for the market and economy is a better approach. We are still in the process of a correction that has historical precedent. The m...
The yield curve has flattened considerably and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield is currently just 25 basis points. Many of the large, popular stocks are still grossly overvalued in my opinion. Value stocks continue to outperform. For further details s...
It was more like a natural disaster or an exogenous shock to the economy because of the way the government shut down so much of the economy. Two indications that are worrisome are energy price surges and the flattening yield curve. Understanding that 60/40 isn’t necessarily...
The recent pullback feels much worse though given the significant pullback in a large number of stocks that comprise the indexes. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is exhibiting the greatest weakness among its holdings with 81.4% being down more than 10%. With a large number of stoc...
Corporate high-yield is outperforming the corporate high-grade index. One unusual aspect to the 2022 stock market selloff is that the Treasury trade hasn't happened. The psychological impact of crude oil and gasoline prices may be a bigger factor in the stock market sentiment data...
Sentiment is reaching extremes last seen at the March 2020 bottoming region. When sentiment reaches extremes, one must be alert to the potential for another bull market phase to begin. I still maintain an expectation to reach the 5500SPX region over the coming 12-15 months. ...
The major force in the stock market right now seems to be uncertainty, radical uncertainty. Since the start of the calendar year, volatility has increased in the stock markets and stock prices have declined. Radical uncertainty looks like it will continue into the future and more ...
Investors say they are bearish, but remain positioned somewhat aggressively. Mid-term years are shaky and recessionary risks could yield more downside. An oil shock and geopolitical turmoil cause an exodus from European stocks. For further details see: Weekly S&P 500...
There are several high-frequency data points that often provide trading fodder for short-term participants, including US PPI, retail sales, industrial output, and housing starts. The individual projections for the Fed funds target rate draw the most attention. In December, five of...