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One of the features of financial markets is that they often react to new information with emotional volatility and overshoot extremes. One of the enduring points of confusion is that academic finance teaches that markets are, more or less, informationally efficient. The market oft...
Based on volume alone, the SPX options clearly have utility. Over the past few years, options volume continues to move toward short-dated maturities and smaller average contract size. The inversion in VIX and the significant rise in energy prices reflect the ongoing concern of Rus...
For the second week in a row, less than a quarter (22.5%) of respondents to the AAII sentiment survey reported bullish. Bearish sentiment meanwhile climbed another 4 percentage points, with just under half of respondents reporting as such. Neutral sentiment fell from 30.2% down to...
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised the range for its policy rate of interest by 25 basis points initiating a phase of policymaking more to the restrictive side of the chart. And Chairman Powell and the Federal Reserve provided some information about how its policy rate of interest ...
The U.S. Federal Reserve finally hiked its policy rate by .25% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2018. The Bank of England followed suit on Thursday, announcing its third consecutive .25% increase on Thursday (overnight rate now at .75%). The European Central Bank hasn’...
The Fed laid out a very hawkish monetary policy stance on March 16. The plan to shrink the balance sheet and raise rates will make things very difficult for stocks. The Fed is looking to tighten financial conditions further, which is very bad for stocks. For further details ...
Coincident measures of real growth continue to slowly march lower on a trending basis. Leading indicators of real growth show no signs of an imminent inflection higher in growth. Jerome Powell was extremely hawkish after raising interest rates 0.25%. The yield curve flattened ...
Claims have been bouncing around in recent weeks, posting declines in three of the last five weeks. Disruptions to the global economy due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the start of a Fed tightening cycle may cause volatility to economic activity in the coming months. Desp...
March PMI data will therefore be scrutinised for the impact of these events on various economic metrics such as output, supply chains, prices and upon the sole sentiment PMI sub-index - the future output index. Since the eruption of the Ukraine crisis on February 24, commodity prices ...
Trading volume in oil stocks more or less tripled. Firms with a competitive advantage tend to keep that advantage over time. Well-managed companies tend to stay well managed. For further details see: Chasing The Past