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We check on the technical picture as the S&P 500 bounces hard with growth stocks returning to favor. Will buybacks save the day? We also review what margin debt means for the market. Chinese stocks plunged in February and early March, but they staged a sharp bullish reversal l...
Wednesday marked the first Fed rate increase since November 2018. Recall that Powell had assumed the Chairmanship earlier that year (February 5th). The Fed's balance sheet and 7.9% inflation ensure history will not mistake Powell for Volcker incarnate. Markets understandably inter...
Economists and policy makers generally recognize that growth will be weaker than was anticipated at the end of last year. Even with some common bonds, the European bond market remains fragmented, yields are low. Russia's invasion of Ukraine allows the US to take the moral high gro...
We are in a rolling bear market, with 42% of all stocks down 20% or more. The S&P 500 has rallied 6.9% over the past four days. The Consumer Discretionary sector is the worst performer in terms of how it has fallen from its 52-week high. The great rotation out of tech and into...
In addition to what is arguably the single most significant geopolitical development since the fall of the Soviet Union, though, this quarter has also witnessed the highest levels of inflation in the world economy in more than forty years. Given all that’s happened, it is perha...
Rates rise for the first time in 3 years and the market celebrates. The "issues" control the price action. Improvements will be celebrated by rallies, and disappointments will have the indices testing lows. China sends a message that wakes up its markets and launches a "risk-on" r...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. There are two dynamics - two pincers - acting on the economic indicators. On the long end, the Fed is tightenin...
Small-cap companies, and many teams that analyze them, are behind the curve when it comes to the implementation of ESG-friendly practices and analysis, making it largely uncharted territory. As more small companies utilize ESG business practices and investors become more adept at eval...
The global economy is facing an incredible amount of uncertainty at the moment which is continuing to drive the volatility we’re seeing in financial markets. Whether it’s uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, commodity prices, Covid or Ukraine, the growth outlook...
One of the features of financial markets is that they often react to new information with emotional volatility and overshoot extremes. One of the enduring points of confusion is that academic finance teaches that markets are, more or less, informationally efficient. The market oft...