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Volatility persists - but it is accompanied by a shift back to market patterns associated with pre-war concerns about inflation and rising rates. Grain and fertilizer shortages could become an issue later this year, but energy prices remain the major immediate transmission mechanism t...
The Fed wants to tighten financial conditions and bring them back to neutral. Tighter financial conditions are bad news for stock prices. The Fed wants financial conditions to tighten through monetary policy. For further details see: The Fed Is Focused On Bringing Down A...
The S&P 500 is not a good representation of a composite of stocks but of a select few stocks. The S&P 500 Index has been skewed toward tech and other growth stocks over time. We like high quality companies with solid balance sheets that have a growth strategy. For fu...
The stock market had its best week since November 2020. History shows stocks have a positive bias in the 6-12 months after the first rate hike of a new cycle. If we are now in a period of stagflation, corporate earnings growth will be the key to positive returns, as it was in the ...
European stocks actually performed better than the NASDAQ last week so maybe it was positive developments in the Ukraine war that spurred the rally. The dollar index fell nearly 1% last week but is still in an uptrend across shorter time frames. What the market does on a week to w...
The economy is running hot, and it takes time for those rate hikes to take effect and cool down inflation. According to our options research, we have entered positive gamma again. Positive gamma is when things become less volatile and we are more apt to see a slow upward grind in the ...
To understand the market effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we need to start with an assessment of the two countries, and their places in the global political, economic and market landscape, leading in. In this crisis, the conventional wisdom has held, at least so far, with matur...
The news has been terribly bearish over the last month. Yet, the market bottomed almost one month ago in the heart of all this bad news. At some point, investors will have to learn what moves markets, as news following gets most on the wrong side of the market turns. For fur...
High volatility has defined the stock market during 2022's first quarter correction. Wednesday, the market dropped significantly on 'sell the news' as The Fed hiked rates for the first time in four years. Then the market reversed dramatically as Chairman Powell speaks. The market ...
We check on the technical picture as the S&P 500 bounces hard with growth stocks returning to favor. Will buybacks save the day? We also review what margin debt means for the market. Chinese stocks plunged in February and early March, but they staged a sharp bullish reversal l...