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The stock market rose for its second week in a row even though the Federal Reserve increased interest rates and is promising to raise them several more times this year. More and more indicators can be interpreted that the Federal Reserve is not really being restrictive, but actually i...
It's been some time since the Fed commenced a serious tightening cycle. Previous moves to raise rates progressed gingerly, so as not to risk upsetting the cherished stock market. The financial sector was expanding aggressively. Broker/Dealer assets expanded 19% in 1991, 20% in 1992, a...
As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of March 23, 2020, low that was p...
The number of options traders that have lived through the start of geopolitical hostilities seems to be growing smaller every year. Historically, crude oil implied volatility tends to spike most quickly and sharply when prices are declining rapidly. The Ukrainian war is obviously ...
Since early December, initial jobless claims have risen and remained above multi-decade lows. That is until this week. Seasonally adjusted claims fell for a second week in a row down to 187K this week. That is the lowest reading since claims came in at 182K all the way back in Sep...
The final March results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell again, hitting the lowest level since August 2011. The composite consumer sentiment decreased to 59.4 in March, down from 62.8 in February, a drop of 5.4 percent. The inde...
Investors appear remarkably calm at the moment given the level of uncertainty we’re facing this year, from inflation to interest rates and even Covid, when you consider China is still embracing lockdowns. Throw soaring commodity prices into the mix and there’s plenty of ...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Increasing interest rates, a tightened yield curve, limited profit growth, and decelerating real money supply a...
Investors are weighing the issues and it's being reflected in the volatile price action. Global PMI data remains resilient despite all of the "issues." Corporations are buying back stock and raising dividends; that's positive. Consumer confidence is at an 11-year low and ...
The blowback from the war in Ukraine has only just started to rock the global economy, but the early clues for the US remain encouraging. An added factor of uncertainty, some economists advise, is changes in the forces of growth and contraction. So far, however, there are reasons ...