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Stocks don't vanish when sold; somebody owns the shares all the way to the bottom. If asset prices, credit, sales, jobs, tax revenues and profits are all expanding, we call this trend bullish. If the economy and asset prices are contracting, we call this bearish. Maybe the trend i...
Central bankers conduct monetary policy to keep inflation low and predictable while promoting strong labor markets. Macroeconomic health depends on two factors: aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Since the Fed can only influence employment through demand stabilization, the emp...
Our view on U.S. large caps remains unchanged, but it was already negative due to stretched valuations and the interest rate sensitivity baked into that segment’s growth-oriented profile. High inflation, rising rates and slowing growth is a potentially poisonous mix for equity ...
Equity investors have generally reacted positively to the prospect of higher Fed policy rates. On average, FOMC members see themselves hiking rates to around 2% this year. That implies a 25 bps rate hike at each of the remaining six meetings in 2022 and possibly even one 50 bps hike. ...
The phenomenal rise in the US monetary inflation rate from early-2020 to early-2021 fuelled a speculative mania in the stock market and set in motion an economic boom. There remains some doubt as to whether or not the latest US economic boom is over. There are other measures, such...
Stocks are recovering in the face of soaring bond yields, taking their cue from a strengthening economy. Investor sentiment is a contrarian buy signal. I expect the yield curve to steepen as short rates peak and long rate inch higher. The S&P 500 should recover all of its ...
Investors should keep an eye on the spread between earnings yields and Treasury yields. Market expectations are also important to monitor. Are there any alternatives for investors to park their money other than stocks? For further details see: How To Tell When Stocks Are...
High-frequency economic data are important because of the insight generated about the economy and the possible impact on policy. In the bond market, the Chinese 10-year premium has collapsed. It last finished above 100 bp on March 7. Bedeviled by Covid and natural disasters, the J...
Global stocks jumped last week as the market digested higher yields. Are there telltale signs of exhaustion in the recent bounce off the February lows? Seasonality could play a pivotal role as this mid-term year progresses. For further details see: Weekly S&P 500 Cha...
The stock market rose for its second week in a row even though the Federal Reserve increased interest rates and is promising to raise them several more times this year. More and more indicators can be interpreted that the Federal Reserve is not really being restrictive, but actually i...