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Most of the stocks we are adding now are prospering from the current inflationary environment that accelerated after Russia invaded Ukraine. As investors seek inflation hedges that can prosper from stagflation, stocks remain our best bet. Specifically, commodity-related companies - as...
I am not predicting a rip-roaring bull market, although the emergence of such a market remains plausible. While the pundits and analysts are focused on inflation and the present, the market sees inflation as one of numerous factors which will influence what happens next. If VIX co...
Inflation has been a sorely misunderstood concept as experts and pundits incorrectly attribute reasons for inflation. The experts have been wrong and will continue to be wrong if they don't change their thinking, leading to poor policy. We have yet to experience inflationary effec...
Preliminary PMI survey data showed only a modest impact from the Ukraine war on current economic growth in the world's largest developed economies in March. The United Kingdom recorded the strongest growth of the four largest developed economies for the third month in a row in March. ...
This article will present all the corrections and bear markets in the stock market for the past 93 years. This will help put today's market in perspective. There are tips all investors should follow during choppy times. Practicing sound investment principles matters now more than when...
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent rose to 32.8% this week from 22.5% last week. Bearish Percent fell to 35.4% from 49.8%. The CNN “Fear and Greed” Index rose from 22 last week to 43 this week. Despite the monster rally off the lows in th...
We now prefer U.S. and Japanese equities over European stocks due to the energy shock. We stay underweight bonds because of the inflationary backdrop. Bond yields sprinted higher last week, with U.S. 10-year Treasuries hitting near three-year highs. Signs of weakening economic activit...
Details around the plans to reduce the balance sheet have been sparse. However, it could be around $100 billion per month. This could create big problems for the market. For further details see: Unwinding The Fed's Balance Sheet May Create Chaos For Stocks
The Eurodollar yield curve implies the Fed will overshoot with swift increases, which will then need to be cut. The yield curve on the Eurodollar, which can be a window into what the market thinks the Fed will do, hit a peak of 2.96% in June 2023 as of Thursday morning. If inflati...
Stocks don't vanish when sold; somebody owns the shares all the way to the bottom. If asset prices, credit, sales, jobs, tax revenues and profits are all expanding, we call this trend bullish. If the economy and asset prices are contracting, we call this bearish. Maybe the trend i...