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As we head into the second quarter, it seems the list of economic concerns is growing rather than shrinking and yet equity markets find themselves in a very comfortable position. The rebound from the post-invasion lows has been impressive, to say the least, but whether it’s sus...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. There were two significant changes this week: among the long leading indicators, the yield curve inverted; in t...
The US market rebounded from a sizable mid-month deficit to post its third-biggest monthly gain since last April. All S&P sectors but one gained ground in March. International stocks mostly underperformed the US, with developed markets faring better than emerging markets. ...
As the US Treasury curve approaches the point of inversion—where shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term ones—investors are taking notice. Historically, an inverted yield curve has portended a recession and weak financial markets. Given much higher yields and...
Economic growth remains in a sharp downturn. Recent data from the employment and ISM manufacturing reports confirmed and emphasized the slowing growth trend. When economic growth is slowing, avoid cyclical assets in favor of defensive assets. For further details see: Ign...
Western economies received a rude awakening to the risks of supply chain disruptions and component dependency/deficiency during the Covid pandemic. Sovereigns, businesses, and households today are all highly leveraged. Inflation is likely to be higher than the Fed’s target ...
US nonfarm payrolls added 431,000 jobs in March, extending a run of 11 consecutive months and 14 of the last 15 months with gains above 400,000. Despite the strong, broad-based gains over the past year, only about half of the industry groups in the employment report are above their pr...
Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...
Are we closer to the end or the beginning of a market correction? What does this uncertainty mean for global equity markets? Deteriorating growth outlook, inflation and geopolitical woes: Where do we go from here? For further details see: Market Correction: Are We Closer...
Spending shifts slowly back to services. But spending on goods still massively above trend, despite supply shortages. Spending on durable goods continues to be handicapped by large-scale supply issues, particularly with new vehicles, where global production continues to get hit by sem...