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The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...
The stock market continues to rise even though the Federal Reserve contends that it is tightening up monetary policy. Investors appear to be saying that although the Fed is making some moves, it is not doing nearly enough. Employment figures continue to show that the labor markets...
Stocks and bonds both lost 6% in the quarter ending 3/31/2022. Bonds did not protect. Consequently, target date funds of all vintages lost 5%. With one exception. Stocks went up 7% while Russia attacked Ukraine. For further details see: What Just Happened?
The employment report was very strong. Price pressures are still an issue. Last week, the markets had a natural sell-off. For further details see: Last Week Was A Good Blow-Off From The Rally (Technically Speaking For The Week Of 3/28-4/1)
Lousy Q1 stock market performances, but will April shower investors with better returns? Under the hood, high yield bonds flash continued warning signs. Longer-term, valuation are somewhat attractive in some US stocks and foreign shares. For further details see: Weekly S...
Inflation hits a new 40-year high. Bond market suffers worst quarter in decades. It is only a matter of how profound Q1 developments will shape the future. China has reaffirmed its partnership with Russia and said it wanted to push bilateral relations 'to a higher level' as Moscow...
According to the BLS, the economy added 431k jobs in March. February was revised up to 750k from an original 678k. Unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. Through three months in 2022, the BLS is adjusting the raw number up quite substantially (-414k vs +1.7M). Although the unemployment r...
Whereas last week’s release of initial jobless claims set a new multi-decade low, this week that number was revised up by 1K. Turning to this week, claims came off that low rising 14K. Albeit higher, at 202K initial claims remain at historically strong levels. On a non-seas...
The investment scene has morphed into a very complex situation for investors. The global economy starts to show some weakness with the EU remaining the biggest risk. Investors enter the second quarter of this year with a feeling of insecurity. The "energy crisis" will continue...
As we head into the second quarter, it seems the list of economic concerns is growing rather than shrinking and yet equity markets find themselves in a very comfortable position. The rebound from the post-invasion lows has been impressive, to say the least, but whether it’s sus...