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You have probably noticed that prices at the grocery store are higher than they were a year ago, but some, like cereal and sunflower oil, are a whole lot higher. This impending food crisis has been somewhat overlooked in developed-world analysis about the economic effects of the crisi...
Warning signs are flashing - Unless we see these signals reverse, economic trouble lies ahead. Staying entrenched in an idea or a "bias" in this market can turn into a costly mistake. Market leadership is about to change in Q2. It's time to review your holdings. Earnings ...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The short term forecast is positive, and the coincident nowcast weakly so as well. There was a bullish un-i...
Claims came in at 166K which tied the number from two weeks ago (after revisions) for the second-lowest reading on record behind the week of 11/29/68. That week’s reading was only 4K lower. As for continuing claims, this week’s reading was higher rising from 1.506 millio...
Last year’s headlines (COVID-19 and China) have been replaced with new concerns (Invasions and Inflation). Central bankers are pivoting from stabilizing growth to limiting inflation. Traditional bond and equity markets have come under pressure as they adjust to this new regime....
Supply chain pressure is worse now than during the height of COVID-19. Will supply chain pressures get worse before they get better? Impact of tight global supply chain pressures on investment strategy. For further details see: Will Soaring Global Supply Chain Pressures ...
Since the "Financial Crisis" lows, much of the rise in "profitability" has come from cost-cutting measures and accounting gimmicks rather than actual increases in top-line revenue. The stock market has returned almost 200% since the 2007 peak, which is more than 7-times the GDP growth...
After peaking at 32.8% two weeks ago, bullish sentiment continues to roll over as the S&P 500 has erased some of the March gains this week. Bearish sentiment in turn rose 13.9 percentage points which was the biggest one-week uptick since August 2019 when it rose 24.14 percentage p...
Fed rhetoric has driven short- and long-term interest rates significantly higher this year. Yet the most important yield curve is steepening. Markets have held up well in light of the well telegraphed tightening cycle. It will take a return to positive real yields on long-term...
The Ukraine invasion and resulting sanctions have led to a steep downturn in the Russian economy. Rising backlogs were most commonly reported in the US and across the Eurozone. Growth is proving encouragingly resilient, but the March survey data indicate that risks have tilted to ...