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High inflation and the war in Ukraine have investors on edge. I'll explore what the economic fundamentals are indicating. Combine the technicals with the fundamentals to determine a likely scenario for the rest of 2022. For further details see: Market Outlook Q2 2022
Like the 1970s, food and energy shocks are proving to be the spark that is currently igniting inflation. Alfred Kahn was instrumental in the deregulation of the airline and trucking industries in the 1970s. That significantly eased inflation. The response by government to the infl...
Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...
The coming days are eventful. And that is with the known unknown, Russia's actions in Ukraine, held in abeyance. The ECB finds itself in a pickle as it meets on April 14! Consumer inflation surged to 7.5% in March (preliminary estimate) from 5.9% in February. The US reports prices...
Market sentiment is the most important factor determining market direction. We utilize a mathematical approach to determining market sentiment. A market sentiment survey conducted last week showed a very surprising result. For further details see: Sentiment Speaks: The M...
Correlations on the rise as key market gauges flash warning signs. Recession or correction? Corporations turn conservative ahead of earnings season. Profit margins remain strong, driven by a large share of tech companies in the S&P 500. For further details see: Weekl...
Fundamentals and technicals remain constructive for equities short term. Investors are climbing the wall of worry as sentiment shifts from fear to greed. The S&P 500 rally will most likely persist towards 5000-5200. For further details see: Stocks Keep On Climbing Th...
The Fed Minutes contained concerning notes on liquidity. Market breadth is soft. The markets are trending bearishly. For further details see: Hawkish Fed, Tighter Liquidity, And Softer Breadth (Technically Speaking For The Week Of 4/4-4/8)
With inflation breathing down their necks, the Fed has commenced what markets now anticipate will be the most aggressive tightening cycle since 1994. Going forward, the Fed would be compelled to signal well in advance its rate intentions and, when implementing higher rates, would proc...
You have probably noticed that prices at the grocery store are higher than they were a year ago, but some, like cereal and sunflower oil, are a whole lot higher. This impending food crisis has been somewhat overlooked in developed-world analysis about the economic effects of the crisi...