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Looking back historically, high levels of inflation combined with Fed tightening of monetary policy led to either a recession, bear market, or a crisis. During the first couple of months of 2022, hedge funds went into liquidation mode. Over the last six months, the market has made...
The Department of Labor’s March establishment survey, based on data gathered from businesses, showed that American employers added back nearly half a million jobs and are now just 1.5 million jobs below peak employment. For the first week of April, jobless claims came in at jus...
Gasoline prices leapt 45% over the past year, and the UN Food and Agriculture food price index, rose 34 percent to an all-time high in March. It’s illuminating to note that the S&P 500 materials sector is no higher today than it was in mid-November for all the inflationary ...
Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield ri...
AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February and a 13-point gain in January. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the total number of job opening...
Jimmy Xu: Volatility has been more pronounced in fixed income than equities in 2022. Xu: Volatility is uneven across different asset classes. Xu: We have been creating diversification through the use of options, especially in the equity space. For further details see: Wh...
The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...
The union movement is strengthening. Treasury yields are rising sharply. The weekly charts show that the markets are repricing risk. For further details see: The Weekly Charts Show A Broad Repricing Of Risk (Technically Speaking For 4/11)
We are approaching one of the worst-performing six-month periods for the stock market on a historical basis. Yet it is followed by one of the best from November through April. Markets have already made significant price adjustments to the current macroeconomic environment, which s...
High inflation and the war in Ukraine have investors on edge. I'll explore what the economic fundamentals are indicating. Combine the technicals with the fundamentals to determine a likely scenario for the rest of 2022. For further details see: Market Outlook Q2 2022