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The stagflation scenario got a little more traction last week with the release of a negative Q1 GDP print on Thursday and hints of more inflation on Friday. April was a really rotten month with everything down but the general commodity indexes. Investing is mostly an exercise in s...
We don’t see a wage-price spiral. Companies are actually paying less in labor per unit of output, we find. We think wages can rise more without adding to inflation. The S&P 500 plunged to new 2022 lows last week. We remain overweight equities in the inflationary backdrop bu...
This article provides data and examples for how (and why) various assets typically perform during stagflationary environments. Bonds and growth stocks tend to have the most trouble. Value stocks, commodities, and real estate are typically the places to be. Some cash can also help ...
While the two more senior historic indices have not confirmed a bear market, retail sentiment for the next six months is extremely bearish. The American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) latest weekly survey summary indicates a 59.4% bearish view. There were 989 new lows for...
This has been the worst start of a calendar year for the NASDAQ since the 1970s. The S&P 500 is off to its worst start of the year since 1939. An average drawdown in an average year is 13%. The S&P 500 now sits down 14% from its high. So far, it has been an average drawdown. A...
Investors know that rates are headed still higher this year, so they are looking elsewhere for shelter from the equity storm. Bonds are holding up better than equities, except for Emerging Market bonds which are in last place. Investors largely believe that the Fed will not allow ...
April showered the bears with delight as most asset classes endured steep drops. Inflation takes a bit out of yearly returns in both the stock and Treasury markets. Nasdaq stocks have felt the brunt of the selling pressure as many constituents trade sharply off their 52wk high. ...
The world's second-largest economy is being hit by the lockdowns as part of the policy response to the outbreak of Covid. However, the economic impact seems somewhat milder than when the pandemic first arose in Q1 20, and the economy shrank by 10.3% quarter-over-quarter. Chinese e...
On Thursday morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that first quarter GDP fell by 1.4 percent (on a quarter-to-quarter, annualized basis). Two consecutive quarters of negative growth may be all that’s required for a group of boffins at the National Bureau of Economic...
New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that prices continue to rise at breakneck speed (much faster than the Federal Reserve has projected). The surge in prices has caught most households off-guard. Perhaps more surprisingly, it has caught Fed officials off-guard, as well...