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There’s a lot of conspiracy mongering with regards to the housing component of the CPI which muddies popular discussion of the topic. The short version of the story is that it is largely based on rent measurement, and not house prices. Although there has been some softening in ...
CPI rates showed no relief in April. With inflation running at over 8%, there is a good chance real GDP in the second quarter will be down. The bigger problem is if the actual pace of inflation has permanently changed. For further details see: The U.S. Economy May Be Hea...
AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.5% in April after surging 3.0% in March, 1.3% in February, and 1.0% in January. Price increases continue to be generally broad-based with 20 components showing gains versus three showing declines, and one unchanged in April. Price pressures for ...
Redwoods Acquisition Corp. went public recently, raising $100 million in gross proceeds. The SPAC seeks to merge with a target company in the carbon-neutral or energy storage industries. Given management's lack of previous industry experience and no prior SPAC track record of succ...
Currently, everybody is bearish. Not just in terms of investor sentiment but also in positioning. When levels of negativity have reached or exceeded current levels, such has historically been associated with short- to intermediate-term market bottoms. The market remains exceptiona...
The US government alone spent a record 43.2% of GDP on stimulus efforts in 2020 and 2021. On Monday, the S&P 500 broke below 4000 on the daily close. So far, the largest market cap weight and most widely held stock, Apple, is off just 17% from its $185 top on January 3, 2022. ...
Just when we thought the world economy was regaining its footing, a military conflict in Europe has led us to reconsider our outlook for growth and inflation. In light of Russia’s invasion, we developed a framework for thinking about the economic impact of the conflict on the e...
The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.26%, down from 8.54% the previous month. Year-over-year forecasts were 8.1% for Headline and 6.0% for Core. In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. For ...
The pace of global economic growth slowed in April to the lowest since the downturn of the second quarter of 2020. While an easing of COVID-19 containment measures on average globally helped to sustain service sector growth in April, the rate of expansion in the service sector fell to...
With 10 basis points left to make bond market history, the 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday a tad over 3.142%. In the past 40 years, no Fed rate hiking cycle saw the 10-year rate exceed the high from the prior Fed rate-hiking cycle. While inflation is not as bad as it was i...