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AIER’s Lagging Indicators index was unchanged for the third consecutive month, holding at 83 in April. Real gross domestic product fell at a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter versus a 6.9 percent rate of gain in the fourth quarter. The median sales price of a...
We're seeing declining asset prices from bond to equities, and in some cases, real assets because of higher inflation. We are seeing early signs that inflation is starting to moderate. Equity market is currently pricing in the probability of a mild recession. For further det...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 1,000 for the week ending May 7, coming in at 203,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.403 million for the week ending April 23, a drop of 36,493 from the prior week. Despite some m...
Contrary to popular perception, equities are not necessarily more risky than such supposedly “safe” assets as US Treasuries. While stocks are much more volatile than bonds, this does not preclude bonds from producing awful real (and even nominal) returns for investors ov...
Stolen, plundered, looted, and the list goes on. It is what has happened to our portfolios since the beginning of the year. Bonds, equities, you name it. While the Fed’s policies may well help our rate of inflation, now at 9.75%, averaging the PPI and the CPI, I do not see high...
Upstart, Teladoc, Amazon, Netflix and Etsy are a few of the names that are getting crushed this earnings season. I discuss what's happening in the market. Why you should welcome this gambling parlor, where market participants are ''playing'' with options and margin. Buffett is onc...
The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon. We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). Given t...
The pure pandemic beneficiary names – companies like Zoom, Peloton, and the ARK funds – have given back all of their pandemic stock market gains and then some. If we do have a recession sometime in the next twelve months, it doesn’t appear as though an unknown ass...
The S&P 500 is quickly approaching bear market territory - down 20% from the early January high. A broader topping process took place throughout 2021. Tech stocks and small-caps have endured steeper drawdowns. For further details see: Are Stocks Nearing A Bottom?
There’s a lot of conspiracy mongering with regards to the housing component of the CPI which muddies popular discussion of the topic. The short version of the story is that it is largely based on rent measurement, and not house prices. Although there has been some softening in ...