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The SPY ETF continues to drop, with no sign of a bottom yet. The Fed minutes may bring the SPY ETF closer to that bottom. There may be a big move in the SPY whether the market likes or dislikes the Fed Minutes. For further details see: SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move ...
Earnings and the markets have been going up since 2009. The analyst community was behind the curve most of the time. Now they're way behind the curve as the market and economy begin to erode. Here's our current S&P 500 target price along with our favorite sectors in the ma...
So far in 2022, the S&P 500 has averaged an absolute daily move of 121 basis points. Coming out of the Global Financial Crisis, the Financials sector roared off of a depressed base, leading to outperformance against the Communication Services sector of 89.7 ppts. Investors sho...
One indication that inflation may calm down is the rather precipitous decline in M2 money supply growth. In the pandemic, federal loan guarantees in coordination with the Fed directly affected money supply growth. From a purely statistical perspective, the stock market has made to...
Plunges in sentiment like we are seeing right now only go this far during a recession. People don’t need the government to tell them we are in a recession to start feeling like we are in a recession. The unprecedented mountain of consumer debt leaves us far less resilient to wi...
The economic news emanating from Britain and the European Union is continuing to come in weak, as many European countries are expected to slip into a recession this year. While inflation may be ebbing in China and the U.S., inflation is still accelerating in Britain and the rest of Eu...
Three drivers that investors need to be thinking about right now. Price anchoring is plaguing your investments. What you need to do about it. The single biggest driver of share performance is the return on invested capital. You don't need to overcomplicate what's simple. Too m...
Since its peak at the end of 2021, nearly $8 trillion in market cap has been knocked off the S&P 500 alone. As home prices were leaping over the past few years, households sustained spending by borrowing against their rising equity. It’s spooky that this cycle has combi...
The war in Ukraine clearly triggered the spike in oil prices and in agricultural prices as well. Inflation, interest rates and Fed policy are linked. Similarly, supply chain disruptions, the slowdown in China, and big-tech reversals are all Covid-related. The bottom line right now...
You know you’re in a bear market when China cuts a major interest rate and the US market responds with a paltry bounce and a continuation of its recent sell-off. As stocks continue to fall bond yields are following suit. The S&P 500 (SPX) remained below the 4000 level a...