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New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, or core capital goods, a proxy for business equipment investment, rose 0.3 percent in April after jumping 1.1 percent in March. Nearly every category in the durable-goods report showed a gain in April, though the increases we...
After months of higher Treasury yields, the possibility that rates have peaked is a topical discussion, fueled by easing rates in recent days. Fed funds futures are still estimating a high probability that the central bank will lift rates again at the June 15 FOMC meeting. Key upd...
The S&P 500 index is the 500 largest market cap and best-performing companies listed on US exchanges. Often called “the stock market”, the index is down 16.7% from its all-time highs, and short-term sentiment indicators point to "extreme market fear". The good ne...
The current investment landscape is being shaped by forces that are very different than what we’ve seen in the past 40 years. Portfolios will include a wider range of asset classes, including private investments and the tokenization of a broad range of assets. The key to gl...
How similar will the next three or five years look from the years that immediately preceded the pandemic? And what are the implications for us as global equity investors? We don’t expect anything like the hyperinflation and stagflation we experienced in the 1970s; our outlook s...
The Fed and financial markets are experiencing a long overdue reality check on inflation and interest rates. High inflation has taken a toll on purchasing power and will hurt household consumption, even though real income still exceeds pre-pandemic levels. Once markets realize the...
Snap's profit warning reignited recession fears and punished companies dependent on ad spending. The rate of economic growth is clearly slowing, as the economy returns to a new normal, but there are no indications of contraction. Demand remains strong and companies are raising gui...
Give peace a chance: how has the global outlook evolved? How has the sand shifted under supply chains? Stagflation. Is it coming? For further details see: TD Chief Economist On The Shifting Economic And Financial Outlook
Over the last 120 years, valuations have consistently proved to be a strong predictor of future returns with lost decades a common occurrence. Given the low growth economic environment, low rates, and weak inflation, a market return significantly lower over the last decade is logical....
The SPY ETF continues to drop, with no sign of a bottom yet. The Fed minutes may bring the SPY ETF closer to that bottom. There may be a big move in the SPY whether the market likes or dislikes the Fed Minutes. For further details see: SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move ...