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The capital asset pricing model is one of the marvels of 20th-century economic scholarship. Holistic Market Model stretches well beyond the boundaries of traditional finance to include accounting, big data and analytics, history, and sociology. Because despite cyclical headwinds a...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell 8,000 for the week ending May 21, coming in at 210,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.281 million for the week ending May 7, a drop of 49,777 from the prior week. State continuing...
It feels like a summer rally is underway after the Fed minutes calmed investor concern about tighter monetary policy. Inflation expectations are coming down along with long-term interest rates and the rate of economic growth. A soft landing looks to be on track. Yet sentiment ...
On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages. The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its bal...
I invest in real estate and think it’s one of the best long-term investments, beating out the stock market if you were to factor in risk/volatility. In one month, real estate fell 14.7% in parts of Canada and the USA. In fact, the IYR real estate ETF fell 15% as well which help...
I've been covering the explosive growth of M2 for almost two years now, and I'm very happy to report that M2 is no longer exploding. In fact, its annualized growth rate over the past 3 months has fallen to a mere 1.3%, down from its all-time, year-over-year high of 26.9% in February o...
Despite these turbulent global markets, we can identify several clear positives across the thematic space. As a result, we believe that it may be a good time for investors to seek exposure to these themes at the dip while keeping their focus on the long-term drivers. As this econo...
Central banks are facing a growth-inflation trade-off. Hiking interest rates too much risks triggering a recession, while not tightening enough risks causing runaway inflation. The Fed has made it clear it is ready to dampen growth. Implication: We are neutral developed market (DM) equiti...
Global consumer price inflation picked up from 5.3% y/y in December 2021 to an estimated 7.0% this May, a pace that will likely be maintained through September. Our May forecast already incorporates a mild quarter-on-quarter contraction in eurozone real GDP in the second quarter and d...
New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, or core capital goods, a proxy for business equipment investment, rose 0.3 percent in April after jumping 1.1 percent in March. Nearly every category in the durable-goods report showed a gain in April, though the increases we...