Previous 10 | Next 10 |
I believe we are in a bear market, because our economy is ruled by debt and interest rates. After eight declining weeks, markets gained last week and it looks like a bear market rally just started. Bear market rallies often last several weeks, so I am presuming a good week or two ...
Bear market rally or has a bottom been put in? Retail trading fervor has all but evaporated as liquidity exits markets. Job postings are down and the shift away from growth stocks persists. For further details see: Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - 29 May 2022
The Fed's announced tightening cycle and the inversion of some rate differentials has caused predictions of an impending recession. We check on several key economic metrics ("screws") that give advanced warning of recessions. Despite some weakness, the majority of economic "screws...
CPI surged to over 8% YoY and has been above the Fed's 2% target now for 15 months - yet the target policy rate is today at only 0.75% to 1.0%. If the Fed is determined to restrain inflationary expectations and regain lost institutional credibility, it is imperative to insulate its in...
Based on several recent reports, it appears the Fed may be achieving its goal of demand destruction. What’s more, even though inflation is still elevated, it appears to be moderating based on the latest data. On top of this, the market has been massacred over the last few m...
Long ideas for a long Memorial Day holiday weekend. U.S. stocks and their underlying earnings are running well ahead of trend. While U.S. Treasuries have also struggled, their outlook is improving. Innovative ways to gain exposure to more specialized areas of capital markets w...
Yesterday, the Census Bureau reported its advanced estimates for wholesale and retail inventories. There is a historic influx of actual goods on top of shipping bills, and it has been nonstop for retailers since October. For wholesalers, the inventory flood goes back a few more mo...
What does the latest economic data suggest about the pace of global growth? Key takeaways from the Fed meeting minutes. Our outlook on U.S. recession risks. For further details see: Is The Global Economic Expansion Decelerating?
The final May results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment continued to fall in the latter part of May. The weakening trend in consumer attitudes reflects a confluence of events with inflation leading the pack. Overall, economic risk...
It’s likely to be another action-packed week despite numerous countries seeing it shortened by bank holidays. The jobs report is typically the highlight when it comes to the first week of the month but there will be competition from the OPEC+ meeting, Bank of Canada rate decisi...