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A slew of manufacturing PMIs supports the view that the US and, indeed the entire global economy is faltering. The bear market should continue until a sufficient amount of disinflation is manifest. In response to the upcoming recession, expect the Fed, Treasury, and D.C. to coordi...
The stock market appears it may have it entirely wrong about the Fed pauses. Markets that price the path of future rates suggests there's no pause coming. The recent rally had everything to do with liquidity vanishing. For further details see: Stocks May Have It Entirely...
Two things any observer would take away from recent news media reports on the US economy are today’s high inflation and low unemployment. Monetary policymakers prime the economy for a recession by keeping interest rates too low for too long. Recessions normally occur after ...
The consumer continues to drive economic growth in the second quarter. More signs the peak rate of inflation is behind us, as inflation expectations also ease. Now the rate of wage growth may be peaking too. Fiscal stimulus is offsetting monetary policy tightening to increase ...
Ray Dalio cautioned investors away from cash, citing high inflation causing cash to be a guaranteed loser. Most equities will also likely struggle in the current environment. We share our top picks to navigate the current environment. For further details see: Billionaire...
Each time a more substantial market correction occurred, Central Banks acted to provide the “neutral stimulus.”. Investors have been under a tremendous amount of pressure this year. The Fed doesn’t mind a “disinflation” in asset prices to reduce ...
The Federal Reserve needs to cool off inflation. They basically only have one tool. That is to tighten policy so the economy cools. Biden is stuck between a rock and hard place. Do nothing and inflation ravages the lower and middle class. Do something and the stock market falls and un...
Looking at the relationship between the U.S. 10-year real yield and the S&P 500 Index forward price-to-earnings multiple going back to 2018, a -1.00% real yield implies a multiple of 23 times. Real yields and broader measures of the monetary policy environment are now back at pre-...
Numerous brokers, advisers, and portfolio managers have become much more cautious, led by customers worried about a recession this calendar year. While corporations are publicly maintaining bullish earnings views, shoppers and stores are reporting early signs of cutbacks, both in spen...
I believe we are in a bear market, because our economy is ruled by debt and interest rates. After eight declining weeks, markets gained last week and it looks like a bear market rally just started. Bear market rallies often last several weeks, so I am presuming a good week or two ...