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Between the 2009 lows and last year’s top, the S&P and the Russell rose by 500% while the NASDAQ rose three times as much, climbing 1500%. So far this year, dividends continue to boom, rising 20% for the Russell and the NASDAQ and about 10% for the S&P. Russell 2000...
Monetary-inflation-always economists start with good definitions. They distinguish inflation from relative price changes. Nobody denies that supply shocks can affect relative prices. The purpose of economic theory is to do economic history. For further details see: Yes, ...
Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners recently completed its merger with SoundHound AI at a $2 billion valuation. SoundHound provides intelligent voice assistant technologies to businesses worldwide. SOUN expects to grow revenue in 2022, but the stock is priced for perfection. I'm on ...
According to the leading indicators of economic growth, the business cycle looks set to enter a period of material deceleration in the months ahead. This growth downturn is a continuation of the slowdown that began in the latter half of 2021. Combined with this downturn in growth, the...
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in April 2022 is $76,563. Inflation eroded nearly 71% of the nominal month-over-month gain for American households. The pace of inflation slowed from previous months in April 2022. For further details see: ...
The market bottomed and rallied 10%+ just as a "bear market" was called. The definition of a bear market is quite arbitrary. If the market can hold the 4045/90SPX support over the coming two weeks, then we can build a base from which we can rally to 5150+ in the coming year. ...
Energy and commodity companies are largely paid in U.S. dollars. Portfolios that focus on inflationary growth sectors are benefiting from high prices for copper, crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer, lithium, and other higher commodity prices. The median new home sales price is now ...
In the same way inflation has roiled financial markets on its way up, it also has the potential to impact them on the way down, should it come down. Our view is that inflation is nearing a cyclical peak, and we expect it to begin cooling off from here. We’re keeping an eye ...
We still prefer equities over fixed income on a strategic horizon, but we moderate our stance after this year’s big market moves. Stocks bounced back on hopes the Federal Reserve can soon pause rate hikes. But we don’t expect a sustained rebound until the Fed takes a cle...
A slew of manufacturing PMIs supports the view that the US and, indeed the entire global economy is faltering. The bear market should continue until a sufficient amount of disinflation is manifest. In response to the upcoming recession, expect the Fed, Treasury, and D.C. to coordi...