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Quite unlike the unemployment rate, the number of American workers who are filing for initial verification of involuntary separation so as to claim insurance benefits has been rising. since March and April. While it might be easy to dismiss claims at less than 250,000 per week, it...
Stocks tumbled yesterday over concerns about this morning's CPI print. Prices are likely to remain elevated due to food and fuel, but we should see relief in some categories. Regardless, the Fed focuses on the PCE, which has a lower weighting in shelter and higher weighting in hea...
Following my March report, “SPY: The Death Cross And What You Need To Know,” the S&P 500 registered seven straight weeks of losses. The question now, where do we go from here? Technically speaking, the S&P 500 has now cemented a head and shoulders top in addi...
Consumer price inflation is sharply overshooting the Fed’s 2% inflation target — with the drivers of that inflation broadening to stickier categories like shelter and service prices this year. Of the three options for September — pause, slow down to 25 bps hikes, ...
There has been a great deal of discussion regarding profit margins for the S&P 500 reaching record levels recently. Since 2010 the information technology sector has seen its margin improve about 10 percentage points to 25.5% from 15.3% as these companies likely have benefited from...
Little has happened at the Fed this week as everyone is waiting for the next meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee. At the next meeting, the Fed is expected to raise its policy rate of interest by 50 basis points and is expected to begin shrinking its securities portfolio...
The traditional “Old Economy” sectors of Energy, Industrials and Materials have experienced a torrid pace of earnings growth with little sign of slowing. The earnings outlook for Financials has arguably been the direst of late. Certain sectors—Energy and Indus...
Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims came in well above expectations today, rising from 202K to 229K. Compared to the seasonally adjusted number, whose 27K increase was the largest since July of last year, unadjusted claims experienced a meager 1K uptick relative to last week. ...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 27,000 for the week ending June 4, coming in at 229,000, the highest level since January 15th. The four-week average rose for the eighth time in the last nine weeks, coming in at 215,000, up 8,000 from the prior week and at ...
There are a number of signals that the US economy is getting weaker even as inflation gets stronger. In other words, we are hurtling toward stagflation. Target announced plans to cancel orders from suppliers and slash prices to clear out amassed inventory. All the data points to o...