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Two-plus years into the pandemic, nobody wants to hear the word Covid anymore. Covid-19 case waves significantly improved in April and May across most global regions. Global markets navigated formidable crosscurrents over the past year—high inflation, supply chain bottlenec...
It’s been a slow start to the month in financial markets but the ECB rate decision on Thursday finally got things moving and the US inflation data on Friday kept it going into the weekend. The Fed rate decision on Wednesday is naturally the highlight, as traders look for furthe...
The preliminary June results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment plunged again in early June. The five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.3 percent in early June. The plunge in consumer attitudes reflects a confluence of events...
The University of Michigan sentiment index has plunged to record lows as inflation fears hit new highs. However, the Conference Board measure paints a very different picture - what you ask and how you weight responses can yield very different responses. It is important to remember...
AIER’s Everyday Price surged 2.1% in May after a 0.5% increase in April, a 3% jump in March, and a 1.3% gain in February. Over the first five months of 2022, the EPI is up at an annualized rate of 20.6%. After seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 1% in May while the core incre...
The CPI data came in hotter than expected, and real wages continue to plunge. The odds of a recession just increased dramatically following the report. This means the current PE ratio for the S&P 500 at 16.5 is too high, and will need to contract further. For further det...
More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative. In many countries, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. There is indeed a sense in which high inflation can lea...
Consumers in America will keep spending in 2022 despite inflation running higher than wage gains. The surge in durable goods spending seen in the last two years may reduce demand for durables in the coming years - spending on consumer durables will taper down gradually but not severel...
After picking up substantially last week from 19.8% to 32.0%, the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish has reversed most of its gains, coming in at 21.0% this week. As bulls stepped back this week, bears recouped nearly 10 percentage points, rising from 37.1% to 46.9%. B...
Quite unlike the unemployment rate, the number of American workers who are filing for initial verification of involuntary separation so as to claim insurance benefits has been rising. since March and April. While it might be easy to dismiss claims at less than 250,000 per week, it...