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A US recession is becoming ever more likely in the face of demand destruction from multiple sources (policy, real wages, stock market, consumer sentiment, etc.). However, this is likely to be a garden variety recession, which we think is already priced into growth stock valuations, ev...
The index for General Business Conditions has fallen sharply over the past three months, now having shed 30.7 points in that time. Multiple month-over-month moves ranked in the bottom few percentiles of all monthly changes on record in data going all the way back to 1968. Employme...
The economy is in a much better situation than the stock market. Pundits are conflating the two, which is raising recession fears. As a result, investors are selling everything at levels that present sound long-term investment opportunities. For further details see: The ...
Today, we see many indications of economic risk, or as noted in “Economic Hurricane,” storm clouds are clearly on the horizon. With inflation running above 8%, consumers are much less confident about their state of affairs. It is readily apparent that “recessi...
The root causes of the inflation we are now experiencing are years of extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies. The great majority of professional economists and the mainstream media define inflation as merely rising prices. The Fed will eventually pivot and go back to money p...
After reaching a short-term high of 32% only two weeks ago, the percentage of respondents to the AAII survey considering themselves bullish has fallen back below 20% this week. While bullish sentiment has declined, this week’s 1.6 percentage point decline was actually much smal...
They raised 75 bps in November 1994. Note the S&P bottomed a month later. Next 5 years, S&P was up on average 28.7% per year. Optimism on Global Growth has only been this low at/near market bottoms. For further details see: 'Take Your Medicine' Stock Market (And ...
After 6 months of relentless-selling, the bond market, stock market, and real estate are at an inflection point. There is technical confirmation in the sentiment charts that we have reached a pessimism rarely found in the markets, and from which a basis of demand could soon begin. ...
Indicators that tell when the bear market is over. S&P bear markets. When do we go long? For further details see: How To Tell When The Bear Market Has Ended
By long-term historical comparison, initial claims remain very low. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle are likely to impact the global economy over the coming months and represent risks to the economic outlook. In...