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Inventories of new vehicles at dealers are still desperately short, even as sales have plunged due to vehicle shortages. The number of new vehicles in inventory on dealer lots remained at 1.13 million at the end of May, down by 70%, or by 2.68 million vehicles, from the same period in...
The outlook is turning grim for the US economy, or so a range of soft data and forecasts advise. Sentiment is a factor in economics, and on that front, there are increasing signs of mood swing to the downside. A lot can go wrong for the economy in the months ahead, but it’s...
After months of fretting about soaring inflation, markets are now fully in recession-fear mode. Yield curves are flattening, credit spreads are widening, and equities are slumping - traditional recession alerts. Meanwhile, captains of industry and finance are warning of impending ...
The World Bank downgraded its 2022 global growth estimate to 2.9%—the bank originally forecasted a 4.1% increase back in January. The ECB announced that it will raise interest rates next month for the first time in more than a decade. Domestic equity funds this last week re...
Investors need to start ratcheting down earnings expectations and what the market is willing to pay for them. The policy errors cited in 2021 are now on full display, and an "Inflationary Recession" looms. An ongoing anti-business climate will continue to have negative ramificatio...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. There were more downgrades in several time frames this week. In particular, a number of short leading indic...
This past week felt like a big moment for central banks, collectively, as well as financial markets more broadly. There are still those like the BoE that still believe that slow and steady will win the race, or the BoJ that doesn’t actually have an inflation problem, but rather...
Unemployment claims are rising as tech firms shed workers. 81.5% of all stocks are now in a bear market, with the median stock down by -32.1%. Unemployment would rise, corporate earnings would fall, and the stock market would take another hit. For further details see: Th...
Home prices are abnormally high across a range of indicators and will face pressure as financial conditions tighten. There appears to be an oversupply of housing in the making and this will contribute to a slow down in the market. Housing is an important cyclical contributor to mo...
A US recession is becoming ever more likely in the face of demand destruction from multiple sources (policy, real wages, stock market, consumer sentiment, etc.). However, this is likely to be a garden variety recession, which we think is already priced into growth stock valuations, ev...