HUSV News and Press, First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III Horizon Managed Volatility Domestic From 06/11/24

2024-06-11 08:10:00 ET Summary We've been tracking a recession forecast model developed for the Federal Reserve Board by Jonathan Wright in 2006, which utilizes the U.S. Treasury yield curve as an input, while also factoring in the level of the Federal Fund Rate. In following mont...

2024-06-01 01:45:00 ET Summary The Treasury yield curve has been inverted between the 10-year and 2-year maturities for 500 days. Prior to the current inversion, which started in 2022, the 10-2 curve has inverted on four occasions since 1987. It still may be too early to concl...

2024-05-28 10:50:00 ET Summary A broad set of US economic indicators continues to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. The macro trend peaked earlier in the year and is slowing, but the current reading for April remains moderately n...

2024-05-24 11:50:00 ET Summary Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply. We currently have the longest, consistent period in history where the yield spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill is inverted. ...

2024-05-11 02:00:00 ET Summary One of the cardinal tenets of investment management is that nothing stays the same forever. Mean reversion will at some point bring the high-flyers down to earth, and when that happens, you want to have other positions in your portfolio that offer so...

2024-05-10 07:50:00 ET Summary The four-week moving average of initial claims, which the Labor Department also provides, irons out the week-to-week squiggles. We’re looking for sharp increases in weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits, and we’re looking fo...

2024-05-09 10:40:00 ET Summary There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. In the search of early warning signs of trouble, it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and w...

2024-05-07 11:15:00 ET Summary Passive funds do not have the ability to actively address the risks associated with their growing exposure to these prominent constituents as market concentration increases. Large-cap passive funds have become top-heavy, with their growing exposure t...

2024-05-01 10:20:00 ET Summary The probability the U.S. economy will see a recession begin sometime in the next twelve months has started to fall again during the past six weeks, after having hit a double-top. The Recession Probability Track indicates the probability a recession w...

2024-04-22 12:00:00 ET Summary How quants work and the opportunities they create. Quantitative vs. Passive investing. Investing beyond traditional models. The rise of geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding interest rates may lead some investors to con...