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Global supply chain bottlenecks have made headlines the past couple of years amid the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. China’s ageing demographics, which lead to a reduction in labor supply, are necessitating higher value-added manufacturing. A shortage of empty...
The national debt stands at $30.3 trillion, and the US government continues to run massive deficits. But does it really matter? Even if there is no danger of default, the debt has real economic consequences. It puts a big drag on the US economy. At some point, there is a tipping p...
Relief may be in sight for some parts of the supply chain. And we could see things normalize later this year. Recent data from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach indicate some relief, as the vessel backlog has declined meaningfully. In addition, ships are unloading faster. Th...
The headline number of 107.2 was an increase of 1.5 from the final reading of 105.7 for February. Consumer confidence was up slightly in March after declines in February and January. Consumer confidence index and NFIB optimism index have tracked one another fairly closely since th...
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the total number of job openings in the economy fell to 11.266 million in February. The number of private-sector quits rose, coming in at 4.106 million, up from 4.032 million in January. To...
The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose slightly in March and remains at a moderately favorable level overall. For the present situation index components, current business conditions and employment conditions improved. Price pressures have been compounded by s...
With global markets close to post-Ukraine war highs, we remain neutral on global equities. In the UK, the Bank of England is the outlier for now, raising interest rates by a further 0.25% but alluding to the possibility of an easier trajectory of rate increases as growth slows due to ...
The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Incoming data in the weeks ahead could be unusually critical inputs for deciding how or if to change the current l...
“Bear squeeze,” or has the bull market returned? Over the last few weeks, that remains the question as the market rocketed off its lows, eclipsing both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Since the lows from a few weeks ago, the market has surged sharply higher. While t...
Most of the stocks we are adding now are prospering from the current inflationary environment that accelerated after Russia invaded Ukraine. As investors seek inflation hedges that can prosper from stagflation, stocks remain our best bet. Specifically, commodity-related companies - as...