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We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...
This is a presentation of my general theories of market analysis culled from my articles and presentations throughout the years. Clearly, I'm a big believer in market sentiment as a primary driver for market direction. I outline my views of a recession at the end of this article. ...
Many see the large jump in 2021 earnings and extrapolate those gains further into 2022. However, if one looks at the growth rate from 2018 through 2022, it is far lower than prior growth rates. We are currently seeing materially lower earnings projections and planned tax increases tha...
The March 2022 headline unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6 percent, just a tad higher than the 3.5 percent rate in February 2020, right before the pandemic hit. That 3.5 percent, in turn, was the lowest level in more than 50 years. The payroll gains number, which economists tend to ...
The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 month to 3 years, negatively sloped from 3 years to 10 years, and positively sloped again from 10 out to 30 years. The dollar is still near the top of its long-term range and I don’t see ...
Short-term interest rates are rising as the Fed begins to apply the brakes. With the loss of LIBOR indexing, the credit markets are unstable and ill-prepared for the likely increase in financial risks. Retail investors could better support financial markets if they had direct acce...
After a painful start to 2022, the stock market surged last month, with the S&P 500 index gaining a respectable +3.6%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ index rose by +3.4%. The rising Baker Hughes drilling rig count below reflects the miracle of supply-demand economics operating ...
The US 2-10-year yield curve inverted last week, unleashing an avalanche of commentary about the significance. The market is not waiting for the Fed to move. It seems clear that the monetary accommodation provided during the pandemic is no longer needed. For further details ...
This is a presentation of my general theories of market analysis culled from my articles and presentations throughout the years. Clearly, I'm a big believer in market sentiment as a primary driver for market direction. I outline my views in detail in this 3-part series. For ...
The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...